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KCI등재 학술저널

한국의 시장위험 프리미엄

Market Risk Premium in Korea: Analysis and Policy Implications

DOI : 10.32599/apjb.15.2.202406.71
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Purpose- This study provides an overview of existing research and practices related to market risk premiums(MRP), and empirically estimates the MRP in Korea, particularly using the related option prices. We also seek to improve the current MRP practices and explore alternative solutions. Design/methodology/approach- We present the option price-based MRP estimation method, as proposed by Martin (2017), and implement it within the context of the Korean stock market. We then juxtapose these results with those derived from other methods, and compare the characteristics with those of the United States. Findings- We found that the lower limit of the MRP in the Korean stock market shows a much lower value compared to the US. There seems to be the possibility of a market crash, exchange rate volatility, or a lack of option trading data. We investigated the predictive power of the estimated values and discovered that the weighted average of the results of various methodologies using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is superior to the individual method’s results. Research implications or Originality- It is required to explore various methods of estimating MRP that are suitable for the Korean stock market. In order to improve the estimation methodology based on option prices, it is necessary to develop the methods using the higher-order(third order or above) moments, or consider additional risk factors such as the possibility of a crash.

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 시장위험프리미엄 추정법의 개관

Ⅲ. 옵션가격 기반 위험프리미엄 추정법

Ⅳ. 시장위험프리미엄 실증연구의 개관

Ⅴ. 국내 시장위험프리미엄의 추정

Ⅵ. 결론 및 시사점

References

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