한국 및 일본 반도체산업의 대미 무역패턴에 관한 동태적 비교분석

A Dynamic Comparative Analysis of the Trade Patterns of the Korean and Japanese Semiconductor Industries with the U.S.

Purpose: This study aims to identify changes in item-specific competitiveness by analyzing the dynamic changes in the trade structure of the Korean semiconductor industry in its trade with the United States and to derive academic and policy implications from the results. Research design, data, and methodology: Most of the previous research on the trade competitiveness or trade structure of an industry remains static in its analysis. Such analyses have limitations in examining the dynamic changes in an industry’s trade competitiveness, trade patterns, or intra-industry trade. In response, Brulhart (1994), Azhar, Elliott, & Milner (1998), and Clark et al. (2001) proposed methods to analyze the dynamic changes in trade structures using the Industry Trade Box, which can overcome the limitations of previous research. This paper adopts the analytical method of Azhar, Elliott, & Milner (1998). Results: As a result of analyzing the dynamic changes in the trade pattern of the Korean semiconductor industry, all items except photosensitive semiconductors, silicon wafers, RAM memory, and other devices were identified as having a comparative disadvantage between 2010 and 2015. In particular, it was confirmed that system semiconductors (processors/controllers, other ICs, IC components, etc.) are subject to restructuring pressure or restructuring. Unlike the case of Japan, it was confirmed that the competitiveness of the Korean semiconductor industry has improved significantly since 2015 due to active government support and the active R&D efforts of companies. In other words, between 2015 and 2022, it was confirmed that system semiconductors (smart cards, processors/controllers, integrated circuits, etc.), transistors, other devices, other individual devices, and individual device parts improved their competitiveness from a comparative disadvantage to a comparative advantage and shifted to export surplus industries. Implications: The competitiveness of the semiconductor industries analyzed in this paper is characterized by dynamic competitiveness, which differentiates it from previous studies. Additionally, the trade patterns of the Korean semiconductor industry have improved towards a comparative advantage since 2015. Notably, the competitiveness of system semiconductors (design), which previously had a comparative disadvantage, has improved. However, South Korea still has weak competitiveness in the global and U.S. markets, primarily maintaining competitiveness in system semiconductor manufacturing and memory semiconductor design and manufacturing. Therefore, government-level support and measures are required across the semiconductor ecosystem to secure competitiveness in system semiconductor design.