지역별 주택가격에 영향을 미치는 요인분석 - 마코프전환모형을 이용하여

Analysis of Factors Affecting Regional Housing Prices : Using Markov Switching Approach

The analysis results show that Gyeonggi experienced the highest growth rate during the expansion period, and the metropolitan area shows higher growth rates compared to non-metropolitan areas. Conversely, during the contraction period, Daegu experienced the most significant decline. While the metropolitan area still showed some growth during the contraction period, non-metropolitan areas exhibited a decline. The variance of the error terms during the expansion period was greater than during the contraction period in most regions. The price volatility during the expansion period was larger than during the contraction period, indicating that the metropolitan area is more sensitive to price fluctuations. The impact of variables is different for each regime and region. It shows that interest rates and inflation are major variables in all regions, regardless of regimes. Their effect was relatively greater during constraction period. Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Daejeon are in the expansion period, while other regions are in the contraction period. However, the probability of continuation was not high, and regions in the contraction period are highly likely to continue the contraction period.