목재 및 목재제품 수급모형 구축 및 전망 연구

A Study on Modeling and Forecasting the Supply and Demand of Log-Wood Products

While the availability of domestic logs has increased in recent years due to the growth of forest resources, the escalating climate crisis has significantly impacted forest ecosystems. It is crucial to analyze the effects of external factors, such as environmental and policy changes, and to forecast future trends to develop effective government policies. Therefore, this study develops a log-wood products sector model to analyze the wood market, focusing on the domestic log market, the raw materials market (excluding logs), the supply chain of wood products, the sawn wood market, the fiberboard market, and the particleboard market. To achieve this, we estimate the supply and demand for log-wood products, construct an Equilibrium-Displacement model, and forecast the future wood market through simulation analysis. Our model is expected to assess the impact of policy changes on the wood market and provide foundational data for establishing future wood supply plans.