한국 육류수요 모형 선정에 관한 연구: AIDS 모형을 중심으로

A Research on the Selection of the AIDS-type Models for Meat Demands in Korea

In recent years a combination of factors such as extreme climate crisis, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and increased money supplies to combat against the economic slowdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sharp increase in grain prices and, therefore, brought managerial risks to livestock farms. Understanding consumer behaviors related to meat consumption is essential for developing effective management strategies and appropriate policies for the livestock industry. This requires accurate and efficient estimations of the meat demand functions. The AIDS (Almost Ideal Demand System) type models are frequently used to analyze consumer behaviors in Korea. However, most meat demand estimations have applied restrictive assumptions such as source non-differentiation (or product aggregation) among product origins and/or block separability against other types of meat. This results in biased and inefficient estimates of consumer behaviors when the assumptions are not valid. This study analyzes the effects of the assumptions incorrectly imposed on the AIDS-type models for the estimation of the demand for meat in Korea. The Source Differentiated Inverse AIDS (SDIAIDS) model developed by Lee et al. (2013) is adopted as the most general model and the assumptions usually imposed are tested as the maintained hypotheses. Initially, we compared the price-dependent SDIAIDS model with the quantity-dependent SDAIDS model of Yang and Koo (1994) to select the more appropriate model for analysis of the meat demand in Korea. More appropriate estimates can provide more valuable information to enhance pricing and marketing strategies for livestock farms and policy makers.