中国人口结构变化对经济增长的影响 — 基于少子化和老龄化问题

The Impact of Changes in China’s Population Structure on Economic Growth : Based on Issues of Sub-replacement Fertility and Aging Population

As China’s issues of sub-replacement fertility and an aging population intensify, the impact of population factors on the economic growth of countries and regions has become significant. This study uses change point analysis to divide the time panel data from 2002 to 2022, with 2010 as the dividing point, to separately examine the impact of dependency ratios and education on economic growth before and after 2010. The study found that before 2010, the family planning policy and the baby boom resulted in a negative impact of the child dependency ratio on economic growth, while the low birth rate and the gradual aging of the baby boom population led to a negative impact of the elderly dependency ratio on economic growth. After 2010, with the further development of the silver economy and the gradual delay of retirement age, the elderly dependency ratio began to positive impact on economic growth, but the child dependency ratio did not significantly promote economic growth. Additionally, education has consistently had a significant positive effect on economic growth. In response, the Chinese government can address the issue of low birth rate by increasing financial subsidies and tax reductions to raise the birth rate. To tackle the problem of an aging population, the government can increase labor force participation and develop the silver economy. At the same time, the significant developing high-quality education and promoting technological advancement for economic development are crucial for economic growth.

随着中国少子化和老龄化问题的逐渐加剧，人口因素对国家和地区经济发展的影响也发生了显著变化。本文采用变点分析(Change point analysis)，将2002-2022年的时间面板数据划分为以2010年为分割点，分别研究2010年前后人口抚养比以及教育对经济增长的影响。研究发现，2010年之前，计划生育政策以及婴儿潮导致少年抚养比对经济增长产生负面影响；而低出生率及婴儿潮人口逐步进入老龄化阶段使得老年抚养比对经济增长同样产生负面影响。2010年之后，随着银发产业的进一步发展以及退休年龄的逐步延迟，老年抚养比对经济增长起到显著的正向影响；但少儿抚养比对经济增长未能起到显著的正向影响。此外，教育对经济增长一直具有显著的促进作用。对此，中国政府可以通过提高财政补贴和税收减免等措施来提高生育率，以此来应对少子化问题；通过提高劳动参与率和大力发展银发产业等措施来应对老龄化问题。同时，大力发展高质量教育和推动技术进步对经济发展尤为重要。