Predicting Changes in Potential Habitats of an Endemic Plant Species under SSP Scenarios: A Case Study of Eranthis byunsanensis

Background and objective: Climate change significantly impacts the growth environments of organisms that have adaptedto natural environments. Endemic plants, which are native to specific regions, are particularly vulnerable to these changes. The conservation of these plants is a crucial national task. Currently, there is a lack of research on the habitat characteristicsand conservation measures of specific species in Korea. This indicates a need for systematic research on field surveys ofhabitats for valuable species, the establishment of environmental variables, and long-term changes in suitable habitatareas. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the geographical distribution characteristics and select the optimal environmentalvariables for Eranthis byunsanensis, an endemic plant in the Korean Peninsula. Methods: To achieve this, we utilized an ensemble model in the R package biomod2 to analyze the current potential habitatand understand its distribution characteristics. We then predicted the changes in potential habitats for the mid-future(2041-2070) and the long-term future (2071-2100) based on climate change scenarios (SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 5-8.5). Finally,we conducted a comparative analysis of the differences between the scenarios. Results: Long-term projections indicate that potential habitat area is larger under SSP1-2.6, a scenario with active climatechange mitigation policies, than under SSP5-8.5. Under SSP1-2.6, habitat remained relatively stable with expansionobserved in coastal Gangwon-do. In contrast, SSP5-8.5, characterized by extreme climate change, led to significanthabitat decline in Jeollabuk-do. Inland Jeollabuk-do experienced rapid habitat loss with a northeastward shift, while habitatalong the East Sea coast of Gangwon-do expanded. Conclusion: This study's analysis of habitat change can serve as a crucial foundation for the conservation and managementof endemic plants. Furthermore, it is expected to contribute to the development of response strategies to climate changeand the identification of alternative habitats for endemic plants.