GL 지수를 이용한 RCEP 역내의 산업 내 무역패턴 분석: 한국의 산업별 무역 추이 분석을 중심으로

A Study on the Patterns of the Intra-Industry Trade of RCEP Using GL Index: A Focus on the Trade Dynamics of Industry

Purpose - This research examined the dynamic changes of trade structures and the asymmetric effect of RCEP on different industries. Design/Methodology/Approach - A GL Index on four industries was constructed and calculated from 2012 to 2021 based on the BEC (Broad Economic Categories) category. Findings - First, the trade creation effect shows heterogeneous effects by industry. China is expected to become more competitive in the capital goods market. The GL index of capital goods with Japan is lower than that of China, implying more imports from Japan. Therefore, it is not clear whether RCEP with China and Japan bring a positive impact to Korea. Second, the loss in the agricultural sector due to additional market opening seems unavoidable because the GL index of the agricultural market is almost 0 for Australia and New Zealand. Third, the consumer goods GL index shows increasing trends in the ASEAN market, implying sector diversification of Korean exports. Research Implications - First, the incoming effect of RCEP on each industry is asymmetric. It is clear that the agriculture industry would have a negative impact on the sustainability of Korean rural areas. It seems necessary to support policies to foster exporting agricultural products to offset the damage. Second, the employment induction coefficient of exporting semiconductors and automobiles is expected to remain low even though they account for a large portion of the country's exports in RCEP. As a solution for youth employment and sustainable economic development, policy for export support for SME consumer products should be implemented.