아밍턴 모형을 활용한 육류시장 FTA 영향분석

An Analysis of the Impact of FTAs on the Meat Market Using the Armington Model

Purpose - The study aims to evaluate the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTA) on Korea's meat market using the Armington model, focusing on beef, pork, and poultry. It examines how tariff reductions, triggered by FTAs, affect the consumption of imported meats and their substitution with domestic products. Design/Methodology/Approach - The study employs the Armington model, which assumes product differentiation by origin. It analyzes the elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported meats using data on consumption and prices. The study evaluates tariff impacts on consumption by simulating scenarios with and without FTA tariff reductions. Findings - Results indicate that tariff reductions significantly increase the consumption of imported meats, especially pork, due to its higher elasticity of substitution compared to beef. Chicken showed a moderate elasticity of substitution between the levels observed for beef and pork. An analysis of consumer preferences revealed that consumers generally prefer domestic products over those imported, with this tendency being particularly strong in the beef market, thereby limiting the market share of imported goods. Research Implications - This research provides valuable insights for policymakers by highlighting the importance of consumer preferences and substitution elasticities in shaping the outcomes of trade liberalization in the meat sector. It underscores the need for strategies to enhance the competitiveness of domestic products in the context of increasing meat imports.