The Impact of Shipping Alliance Restructuring on World Hub Ports: Gemini in 2025 and Its Influence on Busan Port

Purpose - The purpose of this research is to determine the impact of the new market structure arising from Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd’s alliance, Gemini, on Busan port as the main hub of Asia. Busan port, the world’s second-largest transshipment port, will be excluded from Gemini’s calls. Design/Methodology - This study builds a shipping network of alliances (including Gemini) in 2025 based on Gemini’s port call information and compares it with the shipping network of alliances in 2023. This comparison intends to identify changes in the shipping network and the shift in Busan Port’s position as a hub port. To achieve this, we use social network analysis (SNA) as a methodology, focusing on degree and betweenness centralities. Findings - First, Gemini significantly reduces the number of port calls to enhance punctuality, which will lead to a smaller shipping network compared with 2023’s network using SNA. Second, the results of the centrality analysis indicate a substantial rise in port rankings, such as Port Said, Tanger Med, and Tanger MedPort, which were not traditionally recognized as hub ports. Third, the analysis of the impact on Busan shows a significant decline in degree centrality (from 1st to 9th) and betweenness centrality (from 2nd to 12th), which means that Busan will dramatically drop its hub port position. The implications of these findings are as follows. First, there may be an intensive zero-sum game among Asian hub ports. Second, Busan may have a negative impact on attracting investments in new port development plans. Finally, Busan must provide incentives for the GTO (Global Terminal Operator) and eco-friendly bunkering to attract alliances. Originality/value - The present study is the first empirical analysis of the impact of Gemini’s launch on global hub ports using new data. This analysis differentiates itself from previous SNA studies, which mainly focused on historical port centrality trends, by analyzing the potential impacts on ports in the future. This study contributes to shipping stakeholders by providing practical implications based on the analysis results.