Understanding South Korean Public Attitudes Toward Nuclearization: Trends Over a Decade Through External, Domestic, and Individual Perspectives

Understanding South Korean Public Attitudes Toward Nuclearization: Trends Over a Decade Through External, Domestic, and Individual Perspectives

What drives the nuclear weapons debate in South Korea? Using a public opinion survey that spans from 2013 to 2022, this study examines the factors that are important in understanding South Korea's nuclear ambitions in public debate. While an increasing number of studies have investigated this topic, the specific mechanisms of how public preferences for nuclear weapons are shaped are understudied in the literature. Using decade-long data, this study explores how external, domestic, and individual level factors are systematically related to South Koreans’ preference for nuclear weapons development. Regarding external factors, our findings provide supporting evidence that both perceptions of the North Korean nuclear weapons threat and the credibility of the U.S. security alliance are positively associated with public support for nuclear weapons development. Domestically, whether the incumbent government in power is from a conservative or progressive party can importantly shape the public's support for nuclear proliferation. Individual level traits, including political ideology, party affiliation, and age, also serve as important indicators. Overall, our study contributes to the literature by conducting a comprehensive analysis of the factors that are likely to shape the nuclear proliferation debate in South Korea.