An Analysis of Decision-making in US Withdrawal from Afghanistan from the Perspective of Prospect Theory

This paper analyzes the decision-making process behind the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 through the lens of Prospect Theory, a framework that explains decision-making under conditions of risk. It examines how U.S. President Joe Biden’s shifting reference points influenced his policy choices during the withdrawal, particularly as he moved from a calculated, phased withdrawal to a rapid military disengagement. Drawing on primary sources, including government reports and Biden’s public statements, the paper tests two hypotheses: first, that a change in Biden’s reference points led to shifts in policy preferences, and second, that the perception of operating in a domain of loss increased Biden’s risk acceptance. The findings indicate that while Biden initially adopted risk-averse strategies in the domain of gains, his decision to rapidly withdraw — despite the worsening security situation — reflected loss aversion rather than risk-seeking behavior.