인구구조 변화가 지역 생산성에 미치는 영향: 한국 사례

The Impacts of Demographic Changes on Regional Productivity: Evidence from Korea

Purpose - This study explores how demographic shifts, including the old- and young-age dependency ratios, the old- and young-age population ratios, and the population aging index, affect total factor productivity in 16 Korean provinces, including metropolitan regions, over the period from 2000 to 2022. Design/Methodology/Approach - This study first estimates the measure of total factor productivity (TFP) using a standard Cobb-Douglas production function consisting of labor, physical capital, and human capital. Next, the pooled OLS and system GMM estimations are performed to examine how TFP responds to demographic changes. Findings - The population aging measures of the old-age dependency ratio, the old-age population ratio, and the population aging index exert negative effects on regional productivity and growth, whereas the young-age dependency ratio and the young-age population ratio impart positive effects. Furthermore, regional government expenditures, foreign direct investment, and trade openness have positive effects. Research Implications - Improving the labor quality of the elderly is essential to increasing regional productivity and economic growth. To ensure the working-age population, policies that boost the birth rate, which in turn increases the number of young people, must also be implemented. Furthermore, provincial government expenditures, foreign direct investment, and trade openness all play a critical role in productivity by raising production efficiency.