물류센터 개발사업의 리스크요인 중요도에 관한 연구

A Study on the Importance of Risk Factors in Logistics Center Development Project

본 연구는 물류센터 개발사업의 단계별 리스크 요인의 상대적 중요도를 연구하기 위하여 AHP 분석기법을 적용하여 상대적 중요도를 분석하였다. 상위 1-3위 요인으로 도출된 항목들은 수요 및 공급분석(임대계획)의 적정성, 개발사업비 오류로 인한 공사비, 임대료의 부적합성, 시장의 선호도를 반영하지 못한 입지선택으로 모두 개발사업 기획 및 준비단계 중 사업계획 및 시장분석에 해당하는 항목들이다. 상위 4-6위 요인으로는 개발관련 용도변경 및 인허가 지연, 토지매입 지연 리스크, 유동성 부족과 개발사업 기간 차질 등으로 인한 개발사업 금융비용 증가가 선정되었다. 상위 7-10위 요인으로는 임대료, 운영경비 등의 개발사업 수익기반 악화, 시공사의 책임준공 및 보증, 납품단가 인상 및 관계사 도산으로 인한 시공사의 공사중단, 문화재 출토 및 환경오염에 따른 공사중단, 분양시기 공급과잉으로 인한 과다경쟁이 선정되었다.

1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES This study aims to identify the risk factors in logistics center development projects and evaluate their significance, thereby providing guidelines for addressing these risks and mitigating potential pitfalls during the development of logistics centers. (2) RESEARCH METHOD Based on previous studies, the risk factors in logistics center development projects have been categorized into major, mid-level, and sub-level factors. Subsequently, a survey was distributed to experts from developers, construction companies, asset management firms, securities companies, banks, and logistics companies who have direct experience in logistics center development. After collecting the data, the AHP technique was applied to analyze the data and derive key insights. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS The top 1-3 factors identified are the appropriateness of demand and supply analysis, construction costs due to errors in development project costs, and inappropriate rent levels, as well as poor location selection that does not reflect market preferences. All of these factors belong to the business planning and market analysis segment within the project planning and preparation stage. The top 4-6 factors include risks such as delays in land-use changes and development-related permits, delays in land acquisition, and increases in financial costs for development projects resulting from liquidity shortages and project delays. Finally, the top 7-10 factors are the deterioration of profitability due to rent and operating cost issues, contractors' failure to complete construction and provide guarantees, construction halts due to rising delivery prices or the bankruptcy of affiliated companies, construction stoppages caused by the discovery of cultural assets or environmental contamination, and excessive competition caused by oversupply at the time of sale. 2. RESULTS Logistics center development projects require, first, thorough preparation in business planning and market analysis, including demand and supply assessments, appropriate rent and construction cost estimation, and the selection of locations aligned with tenant preferences. Second, it is essential to prevent delays in permitting from disrupting the development process. Third, ongoing management is necessary to prevent construction halts by contractors.