오사카간사이 엑스포와 한중일 스필오버 효과

Spillover Effects between China, Japan and Korea According to the Osaka Kansai Expo

Purpose: It is difficult to find existing studies that analyze the spillover effects of international mega-events across countries. This study analyzes the spillover effects and interdependence structure of the Osaka-Kansai Expo with a focus on South Korea, China, and Japan, which have deep industrial linkages. Through this analysis, South Korea, China, and Japan will be able to develop various initiatives that can enhance their national interests by utilizing mega-events hosted by neighboring countries. Research design, data, and methodology: This study compresses the 2022 World Input-Output Table, published by the Asian Development Bank, into four regions: South Korea, China, Japan, and other areas. The final demand data, used to simulate the impact, were based on the most recent available figures for the Osaka-Kansai Expo. The model by Round and Nakamura is applied to decompose the cross-national impact into spillover and feedback effects. Results: In terms of economic impact, Japan, the host country, accounted for the largest share. China exhibited a higher spillover effect than South Korea, indicating that Japan's economic structure is more dependent on China than on South Korea. Although the feedback effect was relatively small, it remained at a consistent level. Implications: Previous research has been limited to analyzing the economic effects of mega-events within a single country or across domestic regions. This study extends the analysis to the spillover and feedback effects between South Korea, China, and Japan, specifically in the context of the Expo. It suggests that neighboring countries can identify industries that maximize their economic benefits by effectively utilizing mega-events hosted abroad. Moreover, the spillover and feedback distribution structure between countries provides a basis for designing pre-event agreements on the allocation of investments and benefits, which could facilitate the joint hosting of international mega-events.