SSP・­RCPシナリオの下での気候変動による環境·経済影響評価

Assessment of the Environmental and Economic Impacts of Climate Change under SSP-RCP Scenarios

Purpose: In this study, we will assess the environmental and economic impacts of climate change by combining SSP scenarios as common socio-economic scenarios for countermeasure assessment (mitigation policy assessment) and RCP scenarios as mitigation policy targets (level of mitigation) in the countermeasure assessment. Research design, data, and methodology: In this study, we used the MARIA integrated assessment model to conduct an environmental impact assessment for the BAU and RCP2.6 cases in the SSP2 scenario, focusing on three indicators: GHG emissions, GDP, and consumption. We also analyzed the economic impacts on Asian countries (regions) due to changes in final consumption in China and Japan in each case of the SSP2 scenario. Results: As global warming countermeasures become stricter and CO2 emissions are significantly reduced by the end of this century, the economic impact on GDP and consumption will increase sharply. GDP losses and consumption losses will range from 2% to 11%. In addition, in the RCP2.6 case, production induced by changes in final demand in China and Japan will decrease by around 2% in Asian countries (regions) by the second half of the 21st century compared to the BAU case. Implications: In this study, through the MARIA integrated assessment model analysis, we were able to quantitatively grasp the environmental and economic impacts of climate change measures.