우리나라 무역개방도, 경제성장, 그리고 소득불평등도 간의 인과관계 분석

The Causal Relationship among Trade Openness, Economic Growth, and Income Inequality in Korea

Purpose - This study investigates causal relationships between trade openness, economic growth, and income inequality in Korea, using yearly data from 1980 to 2023. Design/Methodology/Approach - This study utilized the Granger causality test for causal relationships among the three variables. Additionally, this study uses Geweke’s (1982) method to decompose linear dependency to measure the relative causal relationship explanation of one variable to another. Findings - We found a bidirectional Granger-causal relationship between the three variables. The results of Geweke’s (1982) method the on causal effect of economic growth on trade openness is higher than that in the opposite direction. The causal effect of trade openness on income inequality is greater than that in the opposite direction. The causal relationship between economic growth and income inequality is mostly explained by contemporaneous causation. Research Implications - A sustainable economic growth policy in Korea based on trade openness should be established considering the possible effect of economic growth on trade openness. Concerning the existence of the causal effect of trade openness on income inequality, Korea must consider the possible adverse effects of trade openness when developing an economic growth policy based on trade.