대통령 국정운영 평가에 대한 인지적 편향 연구: 확증편향 기제로서 투표선택과 정치적 관심의 효과

A Study on Cognitive Biases in Evaluation of Presidential Performances: The Effects of Voting Choice and Political Interest as Mechanisms of Confirmation Biases

(Purpose) This study empirically examines the effect of cognitive biases on citizens' evaluation of presidential performance. In this context, it focuses on past voting behavior as a potential factor contributing to confirmation bias in evaluating the current president's performance, using the case of President Moon Jae-in. (Research Design/Methodology/Approach) This study empirically analyses the effect of voting for or against Moon Jae-in in the 2017 presidential election on the evaluation of President Moon Jae-in at the end of his term. It also examines whether individuals' political interest acts as a mechanism to reinforce confirmation bias in their evaluation of the president due to past voting choices. (Research findings) The findings indicate that past voting choice behavior towards the incumbent president has a favorable effect on the evaluation of the incumbent president. Furthermore, the effect of voting choice behavior on presidential evaluations was strengthened by higher levels of political interest. These findings suggest that confirmation bias, defined as cognitive dissonance between past voter behavior and current perceptions, may influence attitudes toward the current president's performance or approval rating. Our findings also show that political interest can have a mediating effect by reinforcing individuals' cognitive biases, which constrain their rational evaluation of the president. (Research implications and originality) This research is meaningful in that it provides empirical evidence supporting the concern that retrospective assessments of presidents may be shaped by individuals' cognitive biases rather than rational and objective judgments. In consequence, this has implications for the successful management of presidential agenda and the establishment of a good representative democracy.