주택가격 변동에 대한 주택시장 진입세대의 조절효과 분석

Analysis of the Moderating Effect of Housing Market First Entry Generation on Housing Price Fluctuations

(Purpose) The purpose of this study is to empirically verify the role of population changes among those aged 30 to 40, who are entering the housing market, in terms of the moderating variable in the relationship between housing market supply and demand factors and prices. (methodology/approach) We analyzed previous studies on the relationship between population and the housing market; and we are also diagnosing the population shrinkage(the population decline) by the regions. Additionally, we categorized the influencing factors of apartment price fluctuations into demand and supply sectors, and established a panel model to examine the moderating effect of the population aged 30 to 40. The moderation effect was tested through the change in the coefficient of determination (R²). (Findings/ Research implications) The findings of this study highlight the significant moderating effect of the population aged 30 to 40, who are entering the housing market, on the relationship between apartment price fluctuations and factors such as interest rates, unsold inventory, and move-in units. The detailed implications of this study are as follows: Firstly, when examining the population shrinkage rate of individuals aged 30 to 40 by the regions, it was found that all regions, except for Gyeonggi, Chungnam, and Jeju, exhibited a decline in this population group, with Busan and Jeonnam showing particularly high rates of decline. Secondly, the moderating effect on the population aged 30 to 40 showed a statistically significant buffering interaction effect in the relationship between housing mortgage interest rates and apartment sales prices as well as rental prices. However, no moderating effect was observed in relation to GDP. Thirdly, when it comes to the supply, the population aged 30 to 40 exhibited a mitigating moderating effect on rental price changes resulting from increases in unsold inventory and move-in units. In contrast, regarding changes in sales prices, the null hypothesis was rejected at the 0.05 significance level, indicating no moderating effect.