생산자 작목 선택에 있어 기후조건의 영향

The Impact of Climate on Crop Selection in Korea

This study examines the determinants of crop selection on Korean farms using large-scale census microdata from the Census of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries 2020. It empirically identifies the effects of climate conditions, individual farm characteristics, and regional socio- economic and geographic factors on crop selection. A quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) method is applied to multivariate fractional acreage share data. When applying two mid-term climate scenarios from the IPCC to the estimation model, the nationwide proportion of rice cultivation remained almost unchanged, whereas the proportion of non-rice food crops decreased significantly. The cultivation of greenhouse crops and forest products was also expected to be negatively affected by climate change. On the other hand, the cultivation area and share of major and other fruit crops were projected to increase significantly, with some expansion in open-field vegetable crops as well. Given regional heterogeneity in these impacts, climate change could lead to a slight reorganization of production regions. Since climate change is expected to reduce the proportion of non-rice food crops, concerns arise regarding its adverse effects on national food self-sufficiency. Therefore, it is crucial to enhance price and production risk management for crops expected to expand, such as fruit and open-field crops, and to improve water resource management and other related measures.