거시건전성 정책이 자본 유출에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 담보대출 비율 규제를 중심으로

An Analysis of the Effects of Loan-to-Value Ratio on Capital Outflows

Purpose - This study examines the impact of Loan-to-Value ratio (LTV) regulations on gross capital outflows, focusing on differences between advanced and emerging economies. While macroprudential policies are primarily designed for financial stability, their implications for cross-border capital flows remain underexplored. Design/Methodology/Approach - Using panel data from 27 advanced and 27 emerging economies between 1990 and 2021, we employ a system GMM estimation to address endogeneity concerns and identify the causal impact of LTV regulations on various forms of capital outflows, including FDI, portfolio, and other investment outflows. Findings - The results indicate that LTV regulations reduce other investment outflows in advanced economies, while increasing FDI outflows in emerging economies. These findings highlight the heterogeneous effects of macroprudential policies across different economic structures. Research Implications - The study suggests that LTV regulations may mitigate short-term capital flight. This supports the government’s use of regulations for financial market stability. However, the restricted domestic credit conditions caused by these regulations could push firms and investors toward foreign markets. Therefore, LTV regulations should be designed with consideration of the unintended effects on international capital flows, as they might depress domestic investment.