CO₂ 배출량에 따른 농업 생산의 변화에 대한 분석: 케언즈(Cairns) 그룹을 중심으로

The Impact of CO₂ Emissions on Agricultural Production: Based on the Cairns Group

Purpose - This study analyzes the relationship between important factors for sustainable development, such as climate change and food security. Design/Methodology/Approach - To investigate this, a panel data model, dynamic panel analysis, and sensitivity analysis of agricultural production in relation to CO₂ emissions were employed. Findings - Firstly, the nonlinear model of CO₂ emissions and agricultural production revealed an inverted U-shaped relationship, wherein agricultural production increased with rising CO₂ emissions, but began to decline beyond a certain threshold. Secondly, using a dynamic panel model with Arellano-Bond GMM, it was found that an increase in past agricultural production contributed to higher current agricultural production, and a rise in CO₂ emissions also led to an increase in agricultural production, which was consistent with the findings of the panel model. Thirdly, the sensitivity analysis of agricultural production in relation to CO₂ emissions by country indicated that nations with higher GDP and those with greater agricultural exports experienced a more significant increase in agricultural production as CO₂ emissions increased. Research Implications - Therefore, if agricultural production and trade are managed through the continuous and systematic control of CO₂ emissions, the potential positive impacts of CO₂ emissions on agricultural production can be effectively leveraged. This approach would not only promote the enhancement of agricultural output but also contribute to the broader goals of sustainable development. By striking a balance between agricultural productivity and environmental considerations, this strategy can lead to the expansion of both food security and environmental protection, ensuring that agricultural growth aligns with long-term ecological stability.