The Evolving Impact of U.S. Immigration Policies on the Socio-Economic Situation and Decisions of Kyrgyz Migrants to Stay or Return: Between Hope and Uncertainty

Migration has long been a defining feature of human history, shaping societies and cultures worldwide. However, contemporary migration discourse is marked by tensions regarding the impact of shifting immigration policies on migrants' lives. A key debate in migration literature centers on how restrictive versus open immigration policies influence migrants' decisions to stay, integrate, or return to their home countries. In the United States, these tensions have intensified with the return of Donald Trump and his America-first policies, which reportedly create uncertainties for migrants. This study examines the case of Kyrgyz migrants, a group seldom explored in migration research, to analyze how U.S. immigration policies shape their experiences—from migration to integration. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the study investigates how evolving immigration policies affect Kyrgyz migrants across Illinois, Pennsylvania, Florida, and New York. By comparing policy impacts under different administrations, it assesses their influence on socio-economic conditions, integration, and migration decisions. Grounded in the push-pull theory of migration and policy feedback theory, this research explores how U.S. immigration policies function as both deterrents and incentives for migrants. The findings contribute to migration literature by offering insights into the intersection of policy and migrant experience, emphasizing the need for adaptive immigration frameworks that promote long-term social and economic stability. Ultimately, this study addresses a critical gap in migration scholarship by highlighting the often-overlooked role of host-country policies in shaping migrant trajectories.