Comparison of Logistics Competitiveness of Major Ports in Northeast Asia Using Shift-Share Analysis

Purpose - The rapid growth of the Chinese economy significantly increased port cargo volume and intensified competition among ports. This study compares the logistics competitiveness of major ports in China, Korea, and Japan, which represent Northeast Asia. The sample period includes the COVID-19 pandemic, a period of heightened uncertainty. Design/Methodology - This study applies a shift-share analysis to determine a port’s potential based on container traffic volume, a comprehensive indicator. The analysis included 12 ports in China, 3 ports in Korea, and 5 ports in Japan. The sample period is 2013-2023, divided into 2013- 2015, 2016-2018, and 2019-2023. The 2019 period covers the COVID-19 pandemic, which enables a comparison of logistics competitiveness when uncertainty increases. Findings - The analysis revealed three features. First, because of the shift effect, the logistics competitiveness of ports in Korea and Japan is decreasing, whereas that of ports in China is increasing, especially for six specific ports. Second, the share effect indicates that Korea’s Busan Port and eight of China’s ports have relatively high logistics competitiveness, while the remaining 12 ports have relatively low logistics competitiveness. Third, the absolute growth value analysis identifies Korea’s Incheon port and nine of China’s ports as having relatively high growth potential. Originality/value - This study compares the current and future logistics competitiveness of 20 major ports in Northeast Asia using a shift-share analysis with a sample that includes the COVID-19 pandemic. This approach is significant because it allows a comparison of the logistics competitiveness of ports under high uncertainty.