기술투자등급(TI등급)에 따른 혁신 중소기업의 재무성과 개선에 대한 생존 분석

Survival Analysis for Improving Financial Performance of SMEs according to Technology-investment (TI) Grade

기술투자 적합기업(TI1등급~TI6등급)으로 분류된 2,300개 중소기업을 대상으로 생존분석을 적용하여 기술투자등급(TI등급)에 따른 재무성과(성장성·수익성)를 분석함으로써 개선 확률 및 속도를 비교하였다. 이때, 성장성은 매출액을 기준으로, 수익성은 영업이익을 기준으로 하였으며, 평가시점 대비 각각의 재무성과가 72.8%가 개선되는 결산연도를 생존기간으로 설정하였다. 통제변수를 적용하지 않은 재무성과 개선까지의 추정 기간은 성장성의 경우 기술투자등급(TI등급)이 우수할수록 짧은 것으로 나타났으나, 수익성의 경우 기술투자등급(TI등급)이 우수할수록 긴 것으로 확인되었다. 추가적으로 통제변수를 적용하여 분석한 결과 성장성의 경우 TI1등급~TI2등급 군집이 TI5등급~TI6등급 군집에 비해 유의한 수준에서 개선 확률이 높은 것으로 확인되었다. 반면, 수익성의 경우 TI5등급~TI6등급 군집이 TI1등급~TI2등급 군집 대비 개선 확률이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 투자용 기술평가모형과 그 결과인 기술투자등급(TI등급)의 경우 중소기업의 미래 성장가능성 판별에 대해서는 적정하지만 수익성과 관련해서는 개선이 필요하다는 결론을 도출하였다.

Survival analysis was applied to 2,300 SMEs classified as technology-investment adequate firms (TI1~TI6 grade). Through this, the probability and speed of improvement in financial performance (growth potential / profitability) according to the technology-investment grade were analyzed. At this time, growth potential was based on sales, and profitability was based on operating profit. The survival period was set as the fiscal year in which each financial performance improved by 72.8% compare to the appraisal point in time. When control variables were not applied, the period required for growth improvement was found to be shorter as the technology-investment grade was higher. On the other hand, it was confirmed that the period required for profitability improvement was longer as the technology-investment grade was higher. Since the financial performance of SMEs can be affected by factors such as working period, industry, and size, the analysis was conducted after controlling for these variables. As a results, it was confirmed that the TI1~TI2 grade cluster has a significantly higher probability of improvement in growth potential than the TI5~TI6 grade cluster. But in terms of profitability, the TI5~TI6 grade cluster showed a higher probability of improvement compared to the TI1~TI2 grade cluster. Therefore, we concluded that the technology-investment grade is appropriate for determining the future growth potential of SMEs, but needs to be adjusted with regard to profitability.