지방 중소도시의 인구구조의 변화와 지속발전 가능성

An Analysis of Population Change and Development Potential Indicators in Local Cities

This study analyzes the determinants of population change and development potential in local small and medium-sized cities in South Korea, focusing on regional disparities beyond the conventional dichotomy between the Seoul metropolitan area and non-metropolitan regions. Using cross-sectional data from 20 local cities between 2015 and 2023, the study employs descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis to identify factors influencing population growth or decline. The empirical results indicate that education services, employment opportunities, income levels, and the proportion of women of childbearing age exert significant positive effects on population growth. Conversely, medical infrastructure and housing ownership rates show significant negative effects, suggesting that well-developed healthcare systems may reflect aging populations, while high housing ownership ratios can limit population inflows. Green space availability was found to be statistically insignificant. The findings highlight the importance of creating favorable conditions for younger generations—such as improving education quality, generating stable employment, and enhancing living environments—to promote sustainable population retention and growth in local cities. Policy implications emphasize that addressing regional decline requires tailored strategies that go beyond infrastructure expansion or housing supply, focusing instead on fostering conditions for long-term settlement of younger populations.