글로벌 공급망 재편이 중간재 무역에 미치는 영향: 국가 간 패널분석을 중심으로

The Impact of Global Supply Chain Restructuring on Intermediate Goods Trade: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis

Purpose - This study aims to empirically examine how global supply chain restructuring influences the structure of intermediate goods imports across countries. It specifically investigates whether intensified supply chain pressures, triggered by external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and logistics disruptions, have caused structural changes in international trade patterns. Design/Methodology/Approach - The analysis uses biennial panel data from eight major trading economies (2010-2023) and applies a two-way fixed effects panel regression model. The dependent variable is the share of intermediate goods in total imports. The key independent variable is the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), while GVC participation, real GDP, and the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) serve as control variables. Robustness checks are conducted through interaction terms and alternative model specifications. Findings - The results indicate that higher supply chain pressure significantly reduces the share of intermediate goods imports. Although the control variables show expected signs, they are not statistically significant. The negative effect of GSCPI remains robust across various specifications. Research Implications - The study provides empirical evidence that supply chain disruptions reshape the structure of global trade. By incorporating a dynamic measure of supply chain stress, it offers novel insights into vulnerabilities in global value chains, emphasizing the need for resilience and diversification in sourcing strategies.