몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 연안 설계 풍속 추정: 마라도 지역 사례 연구

Estimation of Design Wind Speed in Coastal Areas Using Monte Carlo Simulation: A Case Study of Marado

Estimating design wind speeds for ports in Korea is challenging due to limited historical data. This study evaluates the applicability of a probabilistic typhoon model using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to overcome these limitations. We selected Marado Island as the site, analyzing 171 historical typhoons to create a probabilistic model of their key parameters. Subsequently, one million synthetic typhoons were generated to calculate extreme wind speeds for 50 and 100-year return periods. The results from the MCS were compared with analyses of actual observational data (2001-2024). The MCS-derived wind speeds were generally higher and more directionally uniform than the observed values. In contrast, the observational data showed clear topographical effects, such as wind reduction from the northeast due to Jeju Island. This indicates that the probabilistic model provides a more conservative and potentially safer design basis by including unobserved scenarios. We conclude that the MCS approach is a reliable alternative for design wind speed estimation, but requires refinement to incorporate local topographical effects for practical application.