소매업종별 온·오프라인 쇼핑 수요 변화의 지역적 특성에 관한 연구 :서울시 행정동을 중심으로

The Study on Regional Characteristics of Changes in Online and Offline Shopping Demand by Retail Sub-sector :Based on Administrative Districts in Seoul

This study analyzes the substitution patterns between online and offline shopping in the post-COVID-19 period using data from Seoul’s administrative districts, focusing on retail sub-sectors and regional characteristics. The study found that online shopping substituted offline channels for durable goods, while offline shopping for non-durable goods increased in the post-pandemic period, and semi-durable goods exhibited a complementary relationship. The results show that the likelihood of online substitution was found to be higher in areas with a greater concentration of young adults and lower income levels across all retail categories. In the case of semi-durable goods, a decline in the number of offline retail establishments was significantly associated with an increased probability of online shopping dominant substitution. For durable goods, physical constraints within the commercial environment—such as steeper average slopes and a lower proportion of commercially zoned land—emerged as significant determinants. Urban planning policies should be tailored to reflect regional shopping patterns, and selective support programs for small businesses are recommended to address local retail dynamics by retail sub-sector.