농가의 영농 중단 의사에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석: 희귀사건 로짓모형 적용

Determinants of Farm Exit Intention: A Rare Events Logistic Approach with a Focus on Elderly Farmers

This study analyzes the determinants of farm exit intention, with a particular focus on elderly farmers. Using the officially approved farm-level data-set from the Energy Consumption Survey, we estimate a Firth logistic regression model to identify which farm and operator characteristics significantly affect the likelihood of farm exit. Our results indicate that the operator’s age, farm type, location, education level, full-time status, and number of laborers are all statistically significant predictors of farm exit intentions. These findings suggest that farm succession policies should be tailored to crop types, support intergenerational asset transfer for capital-intensive farms, strengthen income security for elderly farmers, and expand training for new entrants.