기후정책 불확실성이 농수축산물 수입가격에 미치는 영향

The Impact of Climate Policy Uncertainty on Agricultural, Fishery, and Livestock Import Prices

Purpose – This study investigates how Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) affects Korea’s import prices for agricultural, fishery, and livestock products. While previous studies mainly examined the physical impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, this paper emphasizes policy-driven uncertainty as an emerging risk factor that can influence global agri-food price formation. Design/Methodology/Approach – Using annual panel data for 96 HS-4-digit items from 2005–2023, this study applies a two-step System GMM estimator to address endogeneity and dynamic effects. The dependent variable is CIF-based import prices in U.S. dollars. The CPU index is taken from Gavriilidis (2021), with exchange rates, oil prices, and tariffs included as control variables. Robustness tests distinguish between physical and transition risks. Findings – A 1% rise in CPU increases import prices by approxim ately 0.19–0.22%, with stronger effects for livestock, dairy, and processed grains. In contrast, physical risks such as extreme weather events are statistically insignificant. The exchange rate shows a negative but insignificant coefficient, which reflects the CIF-dollar pricing structure and the prevalence of hedging practices in import contracts. These findings imply that policy uncertainty raises energy and transaction costs, thereby exerting structural upward pressure on import prices. Research Implications – The results highlight that markets are more responsive to transition-related policy uncertainty than to short-term climate shocks. For import-dependent economies such as Korea, mitigating price volatility requires both short-term and structural responses: (i) establishing market-stabilizing mechanisms such as strategic hedging and price stabilization funds, and (ii) securing overseas grain infrastructure to ensure stable import channels. The study underscores the need to integrate transition risk into future climate, food security, and trade policy design.