물가안정목표제가 고인플레이션 지속기간에 미치는 영향: 생존분석을 활용한 선진국과 개발도상국 간 비교

The Effects of Inflation Targeting on the Duration of High Inflation Episodes: A Survival Analysis of Developed and Developing Economies

Purpose – This study examines whether the effectiveness of Inflation Targeting (IT) in shortening the duration of High Inflation Episodes (HIEs), defined as periods in which inflation rates remain above 3% for more than 1 quarter, differs between developed and developing countries. Design/Methodology/Approach – Utilizing a panel data set of 31 IT-adopting countries from 1990:Q1 to 2024:Q4, this study applies Survival Analysis based on Guo and Lim’s (2024) analytical framework to measure how IT impacts the length of sustained high inflation periods. Findings – Results indicate that IT significantly shortens the duration of HIEs across all countries, with a more pronounced effect in developing economies. The Cox Proportional Hazards model confirms stronger hazard ratios for IT in developing countries, suggesting greater effectiveness in less stable monetary environments. Research Implications – The findings imply that developing countries should integrate IT within broader institutional reforms to enhance central bank independence and transparency. In contrast, developed countries might focus on refining IT frameworks through flexible targeting and forward guidance. This study contributes novel insights by emphasizing high inflation duration as a complementary metric in evaluating IT’s heterogeneous impact, offering valuable guidance for tailoring monetary policies according to levels of economic development.