환율 및 국제유가 변동이 항만 컨테이너 물동량에 미치는 동태적 효과: 부산항·인천항·광양항을 중심으로

Dynamic Effects of Exchange Rate and Oil Price Fluctuations on Port Container Throughput: Evidence from Busan, Incheon and Gwangyang Ports

Purpose – This study investigates the dynamic effects of exchange rate and international oil price fluctuations on container throughput at Korea’s three major ports, Busan, Incheon, and Gwangyang. It aims to identify how macroeconomic shocks are transmitted differently across ports with distinct structural characteristics. Design/Methodology/Approach – Using quarterly data from 2001Q1 to 2024Q4, the study applies the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) after conducting unit root and cointegration tests. Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) analyses are employed to examine the short- and long-run impacts of exchange rate, oil price, real GDP, and the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) on port throughput. Findings – Using quarterly data from 2001Q1 to 2024Q4, the study applied the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) after conducting unit root and cointegration tests. Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) analyses were employed to examine the short- and long-run impacts of exchange rate, oil price, real GDP, and the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) on port throughput. Research Implications – The findings highlight the heterogeneous transmission mechanisms of macroeconomic shocks across ports, and emphasize the need for differentiated strategies to enhance port resilience. The study contributes empirical evidence on the macroeconomic linkages of port logistics and provides policy insights to balance trade and economic stability.