Vulnerability and Resilience: Informal Labor Income Dynamics during Economic Disruption in Vietnam's Post-COVID Recovery Phase

Purpose: This study investigates the determinants of informal labor income resilience in Vietnam's urban areas by examining the interplay between social capital networks, financial access capacity, and market adaptation capability, while considering the moderating role of institutional support and mediating effects of household coping strategies. Design/methodology/approach: Drawing upon vulnerability theory and economic resilience frameworks, the research develops and tests an integrated model using data collected from 387 informal sector workers across three major Vietnamese cities. The study employs Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to test the hypothesized relationships and assess the measurement model's validity. Findings: The analysis reveals significant direct effects of social capital networks (β = 0.342, p < 0.001), financial access capacity (β = 0.286, p < 0.001), and market adaptation capability (β = 0.257, p < 0.001) on household coping strategies, which subsequently influences informal labor income resilience (β = 0.438, p < 0.001). Institutional support significantly moderates these relationships, highlighting the crucial role of policy interventions in strengthening resilience mechanisms. Research limitations/implications: The study's cross-sectional nature limits causal inferences, and its focus on urban areas may not fully represent rural informal sectors. Future research could employ longitudinal designs and explore rural-urban comparisons to enhance generalizability. Originality/value: This research makes three key contributions: (1) it develops and validates a comprehensive model integrating individual capabilities with institutional support in the context of informal sector resilience; (2) it provides empirical evidence for the mediating role of household coping strategies in building economic resilience; and (3) it offers practical insights for policymakers designing interventions to strengthen informal workers' economic stability in developing economies. The findings emphasize the importance of holistic policy approaches that combine capability enhancement with institutional support mechanisms.