The Effects of the US-China Trade Conflict on South Korea

The US-China trade war initiated by the second Trump administration is likely to affect South Korea significantly, as South Korea’s largest trading partner is China, while the country relies on the US with respect to its security. The trade war is likely to negatively affect its economy, although it may supply an opportunity for South Korea due to the US restrictions on technology transfer to China. The impact on South Korea’s security is likely to be limited, considering that the two countries are unlikely to cooperate to denuclearize North Korea, as was the case before. The trade war between the US and China will have profound implications for South Korea’s foreign policy towards both the US and China. Washington is likely to put pressure on Seoul to choose between Washington and Beijing. The hedging approach is unlikely to be sustainable. Thus, the Lee administration is likely to face difficult foreign policy challenges.