Top Elite Rearrangement during Political Succession in the Authoritarian Regime: A Comparative Case Study of Two Successions in North Korea

This paper analyzes leadership transitions in North Korea, comparing the successions of Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un. Employing a five-stage framework and focusing on elite rearrangement, it emphasizes the importance of successor-led coalitions (elite groups aligned with the successor) in ensuring regime stability before a leader takes power. Findings reveal that Kim Jong Il’s extended preparation period enabled a smoother transition, whereas Kim Jong Un faced difficulties due to inherited elite networks. These findings provide insights into North Korea’s potential future successions and contribute to broader theories of authoritarian regime stability. This research employs qualitative analysis of historical records and secondary sources, contributing to theories of personalist dictatorships.