Early Voting in a Pandemic: An Analysis of the 2020 South Korean Legislative Elections

Does early voting increase voter turnout during a pandemic? Existing studies find that, under normal circumstances, early voting has at best a minimal positive effect, or even a negative effect on voter turnout. In a pandemic, however, voters may be hesitant to cast their ballots in crowded polling places on Election Day and may consider early voting as an alternative to abstaining in order to reduce the health risks. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments encouraged early voting to reduce voter concentration at polling places. We analyze the 2020 South Korean legislative elections, which saw record early voting turnout at the time, but find no evidence that early voting mobilized voters who were more concerned about COVID-19 or those in electoral districts with higher infection rates. Instead, we show that those who strongly approve of the president’s job performance or the government’s response to COVID-19 voted early, following strong government encouragement.