네팔 이동통신의 확산 양상 분석: 계량경제모형의 비교 연구

Mapping the Dynamics of Mobile Telephony in Nepal: A Comparative Econometric Analysis

The rapid diffusion of mobile telephony has transformed communication systems worldwide, yet its adoption dynamics in developing countries remain unexplored. This study investigates the evolution of mobile telephony by modeling mobidensity comparing Gompertz, Bass and Logistic diffusion framework, capturing the S-shaped growth typical of technology life cycles. We observed the Gompertz model was better fitted for the observed adoption pattern in Nepal. The diffusion speed was further generalized through an inversion of Gompertz dynamics, allowing its dependence on economic (GDP per capita and remittance inflow), technological (fixed-line telephone and introduction of mobile data services), and environmental (competition, population, global mobile data consumption, and foreign visitors) factors. National population and remittance inflows were identified as significant determinants influencing temporal variations in diffusion that we further verified from the structural equation modeling. By integrating econometric diffusion model with empirical socio-economic analysis, our approaches provide a robust framework for understanding technology adoption. Results indicate that socio-economic factors significantly influencing the adoption, offering insights for sustainable telecommunication policy in Nepal and informing strategies for developing countries globally.