경북 산불이 사과(부사) 가격에 미치는 영향 분석: 명절효과를 반영한 LA/IADIS 모형을 중심으로

Impact of the Gyeongbuk Wildfire on Fuji Apple Price: An LA/IAIDS Model Incorporating Holiday Effects

This study empirically analyzed the effects of the 2025 Gyeongbuk wildfires on the price for Fuji apples. The LA/IAIDS model was employed for demand analysis, incorporating dummy variables and interaction terms reflecting holiday effects to account for variations in demand structure across different periods. The results indicate that demand for Fuji apples is concentrated during holidays. The own-price flexibility of demand was -0.7293 during non-holiday periods, but it became even more inflexible at -0.7783 during holiday periods. Scenario analyses showed that larger reductions in supply lead to significantly greater increases in prices and consumer surplus losses during holiday periods compared to non-holiday periods. Under a hypothetical 10% supply decrease scenario, Fuji apple prices rise by 8.54%. Moreover, there was an additional 6.85% reduction in consumer surplus during holidays compared to non-holidays.