글로벌 곡물 수입 수요의 국가 간 비교 분석

Cross-Country Comparisons of Global Grain Import Demand

Using data from 1989 to 2023, this study examines the import demand structures of soybeans, corn, rice, and wheat across 14 major importing countries. A Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (LA-AIDS) is estimated with Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) and panel fixed effects models to capture both cross-sectional and temporal heterogeneity. The results reveal that, while overall grain import demand is generally price-inelastic, there are notable differences across countries and commodities, with some exhibiting stronger exposure to international supply shocks. The key contribution of this study is to identify which countries and grain are structurally vulnerable and to suggest policy measures such as stockpiling, import diversification, and supply chain stabilization to mitigate these risks.