식료품 구매 채널 대체성 분석: 전통시장과 대형마트를 중심으로

Analyzing Substitutability in Food Purchasing Channels: Focusing on Traditional Markets and Hypermarkets

This study analyzes how consumers’ food purchase channel choices change when the use of hypermarkets is restricted, when hypermarkets are unavailable due to policy restrictions, and evaluates whether traditional markets can function as effective substitute channels. Using data from the 2024 Korea Food Consumption Survey, a Bayesian Multinomial Probit model was estimated based on both first- and second-ranked choices. The results show clear heterogeneity in consumer choices by income, expenditure level, residence, and household composition. When hypermarkets were excluded from the choice set, small stores and traditional markets emerged as major substitutes, with the probability of choosing traditional markets increasing by an average of 8.2 percentage points. Although this increase was smaller than the 13.8 percentage-point rise for small stores, traditional markets served as a practical substitute for certain consumer groups. These findings suggest that restrictions on hypermarkets may partly contribute to the revitalization of traditional markets and that accounting for heterogeneous consumer preferences can enhance policy effectiveness.