자가소유가 출산에 미치는 영향에 관한 미시적 분석

A Micro-Level Analysis of the Impact of Propensity to Homeownership on Childbearing

This study investigates how housing conditions shape fertility decisions by focusing on the structural propensity of households to transition into homeownership. Using the 2017 Korean Housing Survey microdata, this study first estimates each household’s propensity to own a home based on permanent income, relative housing cost, demographic characteristics, and life-cycle factors. We then examine how this propensity is associated with parity-specific fertility transitions. Unlike prior studies that rely mainly on simple tenure indicators or regional housing prices, this study incorporates a continuous, structural measure of housing stability and evaluates its differential association with fertility at each stage. The empirical results show that a higher propensity to homeownership significantly increases the likelihood of having a first and second child, whereas its association with higher-order births is negligible. Notably, policy effects are concentrated among households with moderate propensities to own, those who are neither structurally excluded from homeownership nor already able to purchase without government support. These findings highlight the importance of targeting mid-level households when designing housing-linked fertility policies. Strengthening housing stability for this group can serve as an effective policy tool to support early-stage fertility decisions and enhance the overall policy impact on low fertility.