China–Korea Economic Linkages and South Korea’s Overseas Online Shopping Growth

Purpose – This paper aims to identify the key drivers of the expansion of South Korea’s overseas online shopping market, focusing on purchasing power, China–Korea economic linkages, and consumer/market-environment factors. Design/Methodology/Approach – Using panel data from 2015–2021 (Statistics Korea, international statistical agencies, and official Chinese statistics), the study operationalizes core conditions, including Korea’s GDP per capita, China’s exports to Korea and sectoral value added, Korea’s food price inflation, mobile Internet users, and the volume of international direct mail related to overseas purchases. Dynamic QCA is applied to calibrate conditions and derive configurational pathways under stringent thresholds (consistency = 0. 90, frequency = 1, PRI = 0. 70). An LSTM model is additionally used to validate predictive performance. Findings – Market expansion is explained as a configurational outcome rather than a single-factor effect. No single condition is sufficient; instead, multiple combinations account for growth. Across solutions, rising GDP per capita is a core condition, supported by stronger bilateral trade linkages, broader diffusion of mobile Internet use, and higher cross-border logistics intensity. Forecasting performance is high (RMSE = 0. 01), suggesting that the market may exceed USD 900 million in 2024. Research Implications – The results indicate that promoting cross-border e-commerce requires a coordinated policy/management package, enhancing purchasing power, ensuring resilient trade channels, strengthening mobile/digital accessibility, and improving logistics performance, rather than relying on a single lever.