부산 주택시장의 가격 양극화와 공간구조 변화에 관한 연구 - 2015-2025년 아파트 실거래가 분석을 중심으로

Price Polarization and Spatial Structure Changes in the Busan Housing Market

This study empirically analyzed the polarization of housing prices and the resulting changes in spatial structure within the Busan apartment market, utilizing actual transaction data from 2015 to 2025. The analysis reveals that the Busan housing market has entered a structural transition period characterized by a significant expansion of the upper price distribution and amplified volatility. A time-series analysis focusing on the exclusive area of 84㎡ confirmed that disparities in location and residential preferences are deepening the “decoupling” of price paths among sub-markets. Notably, the analysis of the price ratio between the top 20% and bottom 20% by district showed that “intra-regional polarization”—representing asset gaps within the same area—has strengthened across all regions. This trend was found to be more acute in middle-to-low-priced areas compared to high-priced districts. Furthermore, cluster analysis results indicate that the relatively moderate hierarchical structure observed in 2015 has evolved over the decade into a fixed spatial stratification, clearly divided into the “Eastern High-Price Belt” and the “Western/Northern Low-Growth Zone.” These findings suggest that housing policies for metropolitan cities outside the capital area must shift from universal approaches to tailored, balanced development strategies that consider the unique characteristics of regional sub-markets.