意思決定 理論의 實際的 適用에 關한 考察 - 假想的 家庭經濟 問題에 關한 主婦의 意思決定 過程을 中心으로 -

A Study on Application of Decision Theory to the Home Maker's Decision Process - With Emphasis on Decision Process of Hypothetical Decision Problem of Family Finance -

The purpose of this study is to test how the expected utiliy maximization hypothesis actually fits family finance decisions made by homemakers, with emphasis on the following aspects 1) The first aspect deals with the prediction of first choices made among the sets of family finance. 2) The second aspect considers the prediction of the home maker's rank orderings of family finance alternatives. 3) The last aspect presents a discussion of the findings and attempts to draw some general conclusion. The decision situation was composed of four different areas of family finance such as income, expenditure, investment, and purchase. The questionaire, based on the Brim's decision process test and containg six alternatives for each decision situation, was used to measure the decision behavior of the respondents. The following is the conclusion drawn about the applicability of the expected utility maxmization hypothesis to family finance. 1) The expected utility hypothesis apears to yield accurate predictions of the family finance decision (i.e., first choices among the alternatives) made by home maker. Home makers choose alternatives so as to maximize their expected utilities. 2) The introduction of time oriention (time direction) into the expected utility index seems so add little to the predictive power of index. 3) The use of the utility (desirability direction) variable alone yields predictions of the first choices that were almost as good as thepredictions made on the basis of the expected utility values. 4) The subjective probability (probility direction) alone does not successfully predict the choices of the home makers except purchase decisions. 5) The expected utility index does not predict accurately the rank orderings among the alternatives of the family finance decisions made by home makers.