AN EFFICIENT ADVANCED TIME SERIES MODEL METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTION OF PADDY PRODUCTION IN TAMIL NADU, INDIA

AN EFFICIENT ADVANCED TIME SERIES MODEL METHODOLOGY FOR PREDICTION OF PADDY PRODUCTION IN TAMIL NADU, INDIA

Predicting crop yield, particularly paddy production, is challenging due to various factors such as crop type, environmental conditions, and management strategies. Although statistical methods have been employed to forecast paddy yield, achieving high accuracy remains difficult. This study, conducted with meticulous attention to detail, aims to provide accurate forecast information for Tamil Nadu. The thoroughness of the research process instills confidence in the results, which will benefit farmers, policymakers, and stakeholders by reducing production risks. The ARIMA models were used to forecast paddy crop production, utilizing annual data from 1966 to 2021 for model fitting and forecasting up to 2030. The performance of the models was evaluated using metrics such as RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R-squared values. The models showed promising results with high accuracy and low errors, providing valuable insights for decision-making processes.