수육에서의 Staphylococcus aureus 성장 예측모델

Cooked pork can be easily contaminated with Staphylococcus aureus during carriage and serving after cooking. This study was performed to develop growth prediction models of S. aureus to assure the safety of cooked pork. The Baranyi and Gompertz primary predictive models were compared. These growth models for S. aureus in cooked pork were developed at storage temperatures of 5, 15, and 25℃. The specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT) values were calculated. The Baranyi model, which displayed a R2 of 0.98 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.27, was more compatible than the Gompertz model, which displayed 0.84 in both R2 and RMSE. The Baranyi model was used to develop a response surface secondary model to indicate changes of LT and SGR values according to storage temperature. The compatibility of the developed model was confirmed by calculating R2, Bf, Af, and RMSE values as statistic parameters. At 5, 15 and 25℃, R2 was 0.88, 0.99 and 0.99; RMSE was 0.11, 0.24 and 0.10; Bf was 1.12, 1.02 and 1.03; and Af was 1.17, 1.03 and 1.03, respectively. The developed predictive growth model is suitable to predict the growth of S. aureus in cooked pork, and so has potential in the microbial risk assessment as an input value or model.