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Effects of Changes in Monetary Policy under Managed Dual Exchange Rates

Effects of Changes in Monetary Policy under Managed Dual Exchange Rates

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This paper analyzes how the commercial and financial exchange rates adjust over time under the regime of managed dual rates, following an unanticipated increase in the money supply. It is shown that if the official intervention is light, the commercial rates will first rise, then fall either directly or cyclically to its long-run equilibrium. The financial rates will first overshoot, then deviate further from its long-run equilibrium before it finally returns to the equilibrium either directly or cyclically. These two patterns of adjustment are very different from those under the pure dual exchange rates.

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