The Relations Among Canadian, Mexican, and United States Short-Term Money Markets

The Relations Among Canadian, Mexican, and United States Short-Term Money Markets: A Pre-NAFTA Analysis

This study uses cointegration analysis to examine linkages among the financial markets of Canada, Mexico, and the United States. The results are consistent with the hypotheses that long-run equilibrium relationships exist between Canadian and US. short-term interest rates and between Canadian and US. money supplies, respectively. The U.S. variables are found to have been a dominant force in the respective relationships with the Canadian variables. However, our findings do not lend support to the hypotheses of a cointegrating relationship between the short-term interest rate or the monetary base of Mexico and those of the United States or Canada. Nevertheless, we anticipate that the financial markets of Mexico will become more closely connected with those of the other two NAFTA countries in the future as NAFTA is implemented. (JEL Classification: F36)