VECM을 이용한 주택가격과 주택건축비간의 관계 연구

A Study on Relationship Between House Price and House Construction Cost Using VECM

본 논문에서는 주택가격과 주택건축비 간의 장기관계를 벡터오차수정모형(VECM)을 사용하여 실증적으로 분석하였다. 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 주택가격, 주택건축비, 산업생산 및 이자율 변수 간에는 5% 유의수준에서 공적분이 1개 존재하여 이들 변수 간에 장기균형관계가 성립하는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 장기균형식 변수의 계수는 이론적 부호와 일치하는 것으로 나타났으며, 주택건축비, 산업생산 및 이자율 변동성에 대한 주택가격의 장기 탄력성은 각 0.862, 0.365, -3.948로 분석되었다. 셋째, 오차수정항의 계수는 주택매매가격의 계수가 –0.111로 주택건축비, 산업생산, 이자율 계수보다 월등히 큰 것으로 추정되었다. 장기 균형관계가 깨어졌을 때 주택건축비, 산업생산, 이자율을 통해서 조정되기보다 주택가격 자체의 조정을 통해서 단기 불균형이 신속히 해소되는 것으로 나타났다. 주택건축비의 중요 요소인 토지가격의 안정성을 통하여 주택가격의 안정화에 중요하다는 점을 확인하였다.

The objective of this study is to empirically analyze the long term equal relation between the house price and the house construction cost, using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The empirical results are as follows. First, between the house price, house construction cost, industrial production and variable of interest rate there was proved one co-integration in the 5% significance level, therefore it has been found that a long term equal relation was established between these variables. Second, the estimated coefficient of the long term equal relation formula was verified to accord with the theoretical sign, and the long term elasticity values of the house price for the house construction cost, industrial production and interest rate fluctuation, were 0.862, 0.365, -3.948 each. Third, the coefficient of the error correction was –0.111 for the house sale price, which was larger than the coefficients of house construction cost, industrial production and interest rate. It was shown that, the short term unbalance was resolved remarkably faster through the adjustment of the house price itself, than through the adjustment of the house construction cost, industrial production and interest rate when the long term equal relation was broken due to occurrence of gap in this relation. It was verified that the stability of the land value, which is the importance factor of the house construction price was a very important element for the stabilization of the house price.